By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
With that in mind the over for Olympiacos and Barcelona looking very likely.
CSKA Moscow are extremely effective at home (9-1 wins) and they want to continue without any major losses in order to have the opportunity to return to the top spot in the standings after their fall due to the five defeats in the last nine rounds. Maccabi, on the other side, have an 8-14 record and have to make a huge leap in order to qualify. Away from home they only have three wins and the last of those was three months ago against Olympiacos. CSKA are the absolute favorites, but the handicap of 15,5 points is huge. The Muscovites will try to contain the Israeli team and they can definitely keep them under 76,5 points (@OPAP 1,75). Besides, in their last six games in the EuroLeague, Maccabi have scored more only in the game against Baskonia.
In the biggest derby of this round, Fenerbahce are hosting Olympiacos, wishing to get one win away from them and consolidate their position in the top four. In fact, in order for them to have an advantage in case of a tie with the Red-and-whites, they have to cover the -9 from the first phase. The Turks lost to Efes in the Cup quarterfinal, they were knocked out early on, but at least they had time to prepare for the game. Sfairopoulos won’t have Spanoulis or Young at his disposal and the task of the others will definitely be pretty hard. The Turks have an advantage for the win, but the handicap of 6,5 points makes us want to bet in favor of the Over (@OPAP 1,75). The limit is very low at 146,5 points and without Spanoulis, Olympiacos will definitely try to run on the open court in order to gain an advantage. The Over then, is quite probable.
Crvena Zvezda count two heavy defeats in a row after the amazing streak of seven wins and they want to bounce back in the game against Galatasaray. The atmosphere is going to be especially enthusiastic and the Serbs will seek to slow the game down in order to gain an advantage. A safer choice, then, is that of the Under (@OPAP 1,75) in the home team’s points. At home, Crvena Zvezda have scored more than 80 points only three times in a total of eleven games. Against Milan, Maccabi and Real they scored 83, 83 and 82 points. Will they score more against Galatasaray? It’s going to be pretty hard.
Milan – Barcelona
Milan are much improved lately. They have three wins and two close defeats in their last five games in the EuroLeague, they won the Italian cup and are optimistic for what comes next. Barcelona were knocked out in the semifinal of the Spanish cup, the grumbling is intense in the team and the four consecutive defeats in the EuroLeague are not helping the situation. The Catalans are three wins away from the top eight, but their image so far does not really convince that they can go the extra mile. The Blaugrana are considered small favorites, but it’s safer to bet on the Over (@OPAP 1,75). The limit of 158,5 points is very low for Milan’s standards (in their last seven games the lowest total was 164 points), but high for Barcelona. The Catalans, however, can get “carried away” with the fast pace more easily and the Over might be confirmed.
The tips
CSKA Moscow – Maccabi Maccabi Under 76,5 points
Fenerbahce – Olympiacos Over 146,5 points
Crvena Zvezda – Galatasaray Crvena Zvezda Under 80,5 points
Milan – Barcelona Over 158,5 points