By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
So let’s continue the trend!
Fenerbahce have a strong advantage to win the game against Maccabi. In fact, they have the quality and the motivation to do it relatively easily. The Turkish team wants to secure the home court advantage but the absences of Bogdanovic and Sloukas will surely create problems for the backcourt of Zeljko Obradovic’s team. The handicap of 11,5 points is justified based on Maccabi’s performances and their absences. However, it’s big based on Fenerbahce’s tendency not to open up the point difference too much in their games. All six of their last wins were by a single-digit margin, while the last time they won by a wider margin was against Panathinaikos two months ago.
In the big derby that is going to decide a lot in the battle for the top eight, Zalgiris want the win in order to get closer to Efes and be one win behind them. In the first game they had won by 13 points, so they have an advantage in case of a tie. The Lithuanians are going to try to impose themselves through defense and controlling the pace. The limit is at 160,5 points and the handicap is almost insignificant. So, if you want to gamble you can bet on the combination of the Under and a win for Zalgiris or the Over and a win for Efes. However, it might be better to avoid this game.
Bamberg have just two wins in their last ten games in the EuroLeague, but the last one was against Efes and it might even cost them their entry into the playoffs. The Germans are going to fight for this game too, this time against Baskonia, who have built up a streak of three consecutive wins and are looking for the best possible placement. The handicap of 3,5 points in favor of the home team complicates things so it’s better to focus on the points. Bamberg are going to try to slow down the tempo, Baskonia’s point limit (82,5) is too high and they are not likely to exceed it.
Panathinaikos – Milan
Panathinaikos wants the win against Milan and the Greeks are going to get it relatively easily. The handicap of 11,5 points, however, is too big for the Greens since they’ve only won two games by a wider margin throughout the season. One of those was of course against Milan in the first phase. The Italians fight for their games, but taking under consideration the crowd’s excitement and Gist’s return, going against Panathinaikos is not a good idea.
For one more week we are going to bet in favor of Chris Singleton. In his last six games in the EuroLeague, Panathinaikos’s American forward/center has 15, 17, 14, 23, 11 and 21 points, with the handicap being fixed at 12,5 points. Milan’s defense does not inspire any confidence and the Over can certainly be confirmed relatively easily.
The pick
Fenerbahce – Maccabi Tel Aviv (+11,5) 2
Bamberg – Baskonia Baskonia Under 82,5 points
Chris Singleton Over 12,5 points