By Lefteris Moutis / moutis@eurohoops.net
CSKA host Olympiacos and have a huge advantage for the win with a double-digit lead. Just like Fenerbahce who are hosting Malaga.
CSKA are very powerful at home and have defeated the other two powerful teams of the group (Real and Barcelona) with a double-digit lead. Olympiacos are not in very good condition, they have problems in their frontline and they will probably succumb with a difference higher than 9,5 points.
Fenerbahce are the only undefeated team in the Top 16 and they can definitely complete the first round with only wins. The confrontation at home against Malaga is within the grasp of Zeljko Obradovic’s players, who can in fact win with a difference higher than 7,5 points. Malaga are going to play without Jamar Smith for the first time and their task is surely going to be more difficult.
Also, Fenerbahce have the second best offense in absolute numbers and the most effective one in points per possession in the Top 16. Malaga, on the other hand, have the fifth worst defense in points per possession. The limit of 81,5 points then, for the home team is very small for them not to exceed. Besides, the Turks have scored less than 81 points in home games in the Euroleague only in the first two games of the season.
In the first four games of the Top 16 Panathinaikos scored 68,2 points and in the two last games against Darussafaka and Cedevita they scored 80 on average. What are the “greens” going to do against Efes? Has their offensive function improved or was the increase in productivity coincidental? The new players that were acquired are not yet eligible to play, several players feel like and are out of the roster, so the philosophy is exactly the same. The Turks, on the other hand, have quite an athletic team and they will likely contain the home team under 77 points.
Laboral have six wins in their last seven games in all competitions, constantly achieving big wins. Most of them, though, are decided in the details. Bamberg are in equally good condition, having achieved some unexpected wins in the Euroleague. They know how to deal with teams like Laboral that play more free basketball and they will probably defend the handicap of 7,5 points.
Eurohoops’ betting tips
Fenerbahce – Malaga (+7,5) 1
@Stoiximan 1,80
Fenerbahce – Malaga Fenerbahce Over 81,5 points
@Unibet 1,87
Laboral – Bamberg (+7,5) 2
@Stoiximan 1,85
CSKA – Olympiacos (+9,5) 1
@Bet365 1,90
Panathinaikos – Efes Panathinaikos Under 77,5 points
@Coral 1,91