By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
Eurohoops’ betting column analyzes the first games of the EuroLeague and predicts their development by focusing on the offense of CSKA and Real.
Maccabi are coming from the defeat by Efes at home, but they’re certainly in good form as they were counting three wins in a row before that. On the contrary, Bamberg have five defeats in a row, as they look for ways to win the close games. The Israelis at home have an advantage, but the Germans are tough and can fight to the end. With the limit being at 6,5 points, it’s preferable to avoid betting on this game.
Fenerbahce have three wins in a row after the three consecutive defeats, but losing to Tofas in the Turkish championship definitely brought them back down to earth and created an extra motivation for Obradovic’s players. Crvena Zvezda have a 4-6 record and are coming from two bad defeats by Efes and Zalgiris. The home team has a clear advantage, but the 10,5-point handicap prevents us from betting. So, it’s better to bet on the Over of 150,5 points (@Bet365 1,80) because even though the two teams have the second and third worst output, in their recent games both teams seem different and show that they can go over the limit.
Milan – CSKA Moscow
Milan have dropped in the standings with their three defeats in a row, but the departure of Alessandro Gentile will definitely change the balances in the team and it’s not certain in which direction. The Italians, however, have the worst defense in the EuroLeague (conceding 90,5 points) and this is hard to change immediately. CSKA, on the other hand, have the best offense with 93,3 points. Will the European champions be able to score more than 92 points in Milan without De Colo? They did so in two of the three games the French guard was absent. So we’re betting on the Over (@Stoiximan 1,95).
Real are in second place with a 7-3 record, they have been defeated by last year’s finalists (CSKA, Fenerbahce) and Baskonia, and are winning most of their games by a wide margin. Zalgiris, however, no matter how weak they seem based on their record (4-6) and their name, can fight the game. Besides, they do have three wins in the last four games, losing only to CSKA. The handicap of 12,5 points is rather big and we’re going to prefer an “unorthodox” choice. Real’s point limit is 90,5 and so far, in a total of 10 games, they have scored more only in two away games, in the triumph against Barcelona and in the comfortable win over Milan. Zalgiris are going to be well prepared and can keep Real under 90,5 points (@Sportingbet 1,91).
The choices
Fenerbahce – Crvena Zvezda Over 150,5 points
Milan – CSKA Moscow CSKA Moscow Over 92,5 points
Real Madrid – Zalgiris Real Madrid Under 90,5 points