By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
The last round of the first phase of the EuroLeague starts off with some rather interesting games and the one at the Peace & Friendship Stadium (Olympiacos – Fenerbahce) stands out.
Efes have a 7-7 record and have been rather inconsistent in their last games. Real have three defeats in a row away from home and have gown down to 9-5. The Turkish team has now started playing in a different, slower tempo compared to the start of the season. The Madrilenos rely heavily on Sergio Llull’s mood and the game seems hard to predict. However, based on the image of the two teams in their recent games, it seems that the Under with the limit at 170,5 points (@Stoiximan 1,80) is very likely. In Real’s six most recent games it hasn’t been confirmed once and in Efes’s twice.
Crvena Zvezda are very good at home with three great wins in the last four games in Belgrade (over Real, Maccabi and Milan). CSKA showed that they are… mortal by losing for the second time this season. The Muscovites are going to line up with the duo of De Colo and Teodosic for the first time after a month and a half. The handicap of 6,5 points is relatively low and we could bet on the away win, but in Belgrade any such prediction is risky. So, it’s preferable to bet on the Under with the limit at 161,5 points (@OPAP 1,75). Zvezda set a slower tempo in all their games, lately CSKA have been playing at a lower tempo and the limit is high for Belgrade
Olympiacos are coming off the defeat at Bamberg, but the game against Fenerbahce is crucial for the red-and-whites, who want to remain in second place. Printezis is still out, while on the other side Bogdanovic is still injured as well. The home team has a strong incentive and the home court can be an advantage. Zeljko Obradovic’s team has been winning all their close games and when they lose, the margin is always bigger than 7 points. So, will Olympiacos win by more than 2,5 points? Fenerbahce’s small rotation makes us want to bet on the home win (@Bet365 1,83).
Milan – Zalgiris
Milan continues to disappoint having reached seven defeats in a row. They have the worst defense in the competition, conceding 88,7 points, while Zalgiris are at fourth place, conceding 83,2 points. The Lithuanians, however, have a win more (5-9 record) compared to the Italians and they are clearly in better form. The game is crucial for Milan after another defeat in the championship by Reggio Emilio, but Zalgiris is a principled team that won’t go down easily. So, it’s preferable, then, to bet on the Lithuanians’ Over at 80,5 points (@Stoiximan 1,80), since Milan have been conceding 79+ points in all seven of their last games and Zalgiris have scored 80+ points in nine of their last ten games. So, whenever there is such a rate with the Over ahead of a game against the worst defense in the EuroLeague, the choice looks like… a one-way street.
Baskonia’s impressive streak was cut short last week by Panathinaikos, but the Basques are definitely in good form. Ainars Bagatskis is going to make his debut in the EuroLeague on Maccabi’s bench and he might be bringing changes in the Israelis’ game. So, the home team probably has an advantage and can win by a margin greater than the 4,5 points of the handicap. However, since the Israelis have a new coach, it’s better that you avoid this game.
The choices
Anadolu Efes – Real Madrid Under 170,5 points
Crvena Zvezda – CSKA Moscow Under 161,5 points
Olympiacos – Fenerbahce (+2,5) 1
Milan – Zalgiris Zalgiris Over 80,5 points