By Eurohoops team / info@eurohoops.net
The 2024/25 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague Regular Season has entered the final stretch. Teams returned to action after a break, and Round 27 is already in the books.
That means there are only seven rounds left to determine who’s going to the Playoffs and Play-In. There’s no more room for error.
Except maybe for Olympiacos, who seems safe at the top of the standings with a 20-7 record and on its way to securing a playoff spot quickly, along with home-court advantage. According to Figurei8th, the Piraeus team is 100% certain to make it to the Top 4 in all scenarios.
The projection determined by the Basketball Advanced Stats and Charts account puts the Greek team at the top, with Panathinaikos (86.2%) and Fenerbahce (72.4%) the only other teams with more than a 70% chance for a home-court advantage spot.
The prediction model, with 10,000 simulations based on Elo rankings for the past two seasons, Net Advanced Rating (Offensive – Defensive) this season, split by home/away games, and Strength of Schedule embedded in it, puts Monaco alongside the mentioned teams with the highest chances (44.9%) to play first playoff games at home.
It also predicts a close battle for Top 6 and direct Playoff spots between Paris, Partizan, Bayern Munich, and Crvena Zvezda, giving the highest chances to the French team (47.4%) and the lowest to the German side (41.5%).
As for who could take the last two Play-In spots, the race gets even tighter between Olimpia Milano, Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Anadolu Efes. According to Figurei8th, Milano (74.1%) and Barca (72.7%) have a higher probability than Real Madrid (63.8%) to make it to the Top 10, while Anadolu Efes’ chances stand significantly below the three aforementioned teams (39.2%).
As for the other teams, Zalgiris Kaunas has a slim 4.3% chance to enter the postseason via Play-Ins, while Baskonia and ASVEL may need a miracle to enter the Top 10, with below 1% probability. Virtus Bologna, Maccabi Tel Aviv, and ALBA Berlin are out of contention.
With seven rounds to go, the situation in the EuroLeague standings is mostly tense, with only Olympiacos safe at the top, boasting a 20-7 record. Fenerbahce is at 17-9 and still has to play a delayed Round 17 match against Paris, while Panathinaikos is third with a 17-10 record.
Lacking behind the teams below in matches played, Paris is fourth with a 16-10 record, while Monaco, Crvena Zvezda, and Bayern Munich follow with a 16-11 record. Partizan and Olimpia Milano have 15-12 records, while Real Madrid and Barcelona are at 14-13. Anadolu Efes and Zalgiris Kaunas have reached 13 victories so far, losing 14 matches until Round 28.