What does home advantage mean for EuroLeague odds?

By Eurohoops team / info@eurohoops.net

But the Israeli club may soon be playing its home games in another country, with preparations underway for a move to Limassol, Cyprus.

The proposed relocation raises an interesting question for EuroLeague betting markets: how much of the usual home-court advantage remains when a team plays outside its own country?

Historical results show that home teams win considerably more often than visiting sides. However, the reasons behind that advantage, including crowd support, familiarity and travel, become more complicated when the designated home team is playing in a temporary venue.

Home Advantage Is Real, but It Is Not One Fixed Number

A study published in the Journal of Human Sport and Exercise in March 2026 examined 2,154 EuroLeague regular-season games across eight seasons between 2016 and 2025.

The researchers found that home teams won 62.9% of those games, confirming that playing at home remains an important factor in European basketball.

However, that percentage cannot be treated as the probability of any particular team winning its next home fixture.

Team quality, opposition and the circumstances surrounding each game all influence the outcome. A title contender facing a struggling opponent is likely to have a different chance of winning than a lower-ranked team hosting the competition leader.

Real Madrid‘s remarkable home record last season provides a useful example.

The Spanish club finished the 2025–26 EuroLeague regular season with 18 victories from 19 home games, setting a competition record. Madrid averaged 92.7 points scored and 79.4 allowed during those victories, establishing the Movistar Arena as one of Europe’s most difficult venues for visiting teams.

Yet those results reflected more than the arena itself. Madrid had a strong roster, an established tactical structure and the ability to overcome different types of opposition.

The lesson for betting markets is that home advantage must be assessed alongside team strength, rather than treated as an identical benefit added to every home team’s chances.

Maccabi’s Home Court May Soon Change Again

Maccabi‘s situation illustrates why the usual distinction between home and away can become misleading.

Following the outbreak of the war in October 2023, the club began playing EuroLeague home games at Aleksandar Nikolić Hall in Belgrade.

Some fixtures returned to Tel Aviv during the 2025–26 season, beginning in December 2025, before renewed regional instability led the competition to approve alternative venues again.

Belgrade subsequently became Maccabi‘s designated home base, although the club continued seeking a return to Israel.

The latest proposal would move its EuroLeague home games to the Spyros Kyprianou Athletic Centre in Limassol, an arena with a capacity of approximately 8,000 spectators that previously hosted games during EuroBasket 2025.

Cypriot authorities inspected the venue on October 6, with Maccabi’s game against Real Madrid on October 22 identified as the proposed first fixture.

Final EuroLeague approval and the remaining safety arrangements had not been confirmed at the time of the announcement.

The victory over Milano on October 8 was therefore potentially Maccabi’s final EuroLeague game in Belgrade before the change.

Winning by 18 points demonstrates that Maccabi can produce an impressive performance in its adopted home arena. It does not establish how much of that result came from the venue, or whether another temporary home would offer the same conditions.

That uncertainty is precisely what makes the proposed relocation interesting from a betting perspective.

The Crowd, the Court and the Travel Are Different Variables

Home advantage is often discussed as though it comes from one source: the supporters.

Crowds certainly contribute to the atmosphere of EuroLeague basketball, particularly in arenas where opponents must deal with sustained noise and pressure throughout the game.

But crowd support is only one part of the equation.

Playing regularly in the same arena allows a team to become accustomed to its shooting backgrounds, court environment and pregame routines. Familiarity can help players prepare consistently, even when the crowd is smaller than usual.

Travel is another important factor.

A team playing in its usual city avoids some of the logistical demands placed on visitors, including long journeys, changing accommodation and unfamiliar preparation facilities.

These advantages do not necessarily disappear when a club relocates, but they can change.

If Maccabi moves to Cyprus, the effect will depend partly on where its players are based, how training and travel are organized and whether the new venue attracts a meaningful home crowd.

The club could benefit from more convenient arrangements without recreating the atmosphere of its usual Tel Aviv home.

Hapoel Tel Aviv’s use of Sofia as an alternative venue illustrates how the EuroLeague has already had to accommodate clubs playing designated home fixtures outside their own countries.

For bookmakers, these situations are not equivalent to an ordinary home game or a traditional neutral-court contest.

The actual conditions need to be considered individually.

What Should Change in EuroLeague Betting Odds?

Home-court advantage can influence several basketball betting markets, but the effect is not necessarily identical across them.

In the moneyline market, a venue change may alter the estimated probability of either team winning. If a club loses some of its usual home advantage, that could reduce its expected chances against an otherwise unchanged opponent.

Point spreads present a related question.

A smaller home advantage could reduce the expected winning margin, although the size of any adjustment depends on the difference in team quality and the circumstances of the matchup.

Game totals are less straightforward.

A quieter arena or different travel arrangements do not automatically produce more or fewer points. Scoring expectations are influenced by offensive efficiency, pace, defensive matchups and player availability, none of which can be reliably reduced to the location alone.

For Maccabi, a meaningful market assessment would need to compare the team’s expected performance in Belgrade with the conditions likely to exist in Limassol.

Simply applying the EuroLeague’s historical home-winning percentage would ignore the very differences that make the relocation significant.

Comparing bookmaker prices also requires reliable sources. Separate gambling brands can share corporate ownership, as illustrated by casino sister sites. That does not mean related sportsbooks necessarily offer identical EuroLeague lines, but several brand names should not automatically be treated as independent evidence of a market trend.

A useful comparison would involve clearly identified sportsbooks, the same fixture and prices recorded at specific times before and after a confirmed venue announcement.

Without that information, claims that bookmakers have overestimated or underestimated Maccabi’s home advantage remain speculative.

Bookmakers Have Dealt With Empty Arenas Before

The pandemic provided researchers with an unusual opportunity to examine basketball performance without normal crowd support.

A study by Luca De Angelis and James Reade, published in Annals of Operations Research in 2023, examined 27,691 games across ten leading European domestic basketball leagues.

It found that home-winning rates fell from approximately 61% before the pandemic to around 56% when games were played without spectators.

That reduction supported the argument that crowds contribute meaningfully to home advantage.

However, the research produced another important finding: bookmakers generally adjusted their prices to reflect the change.

The authors found little evidence that the absence of spectators created systematic pricing errors across the markets studied. Bookmakers appeared to have incorporated the reduced home advantage into their assessments.

This matters when considering Maccabi’s proposed relocation.

A change in crowd support or venue familiarity may alter a team’s winning probability, but identifying that change does not mean the betting market has ignored it.

The pandemic research examined domestic competitions rather than Maccabi’s particular circumstances. Moving to another country is also different from playing in an empty version of a familiar arena.

Nevertheless, the findings demonstrate that bookmakers can adapt to changes in playing conditions rather than relying indefinitely on historical home and away records.

Maccabi–Real Madrid Will Offer a Useful Test

Maccabi’s scheduled October 22 meeting with Real Madrid could provide the first meaningful evidence of how the club performs in its proposed Cyprus home, provided the relocation receives final approval.

The fixture is particularly interesting because Madrid has demonstrated considerable strength at home in recent seasons, while Maccabi is still adjusting to its own changing venue arrangements.

Several details will matter before drawing conclusions.

Confirmation of the arena, actual attendance, travel schedules and both teams’ available players will help establish the circumstances of the contest.

Betting prices recorded before and after a confirmed venue decision could also show whether bookmakers adjusted their assessment of Maccabi’s home advantage.

Even then, a price movement would not establish that the previous valuation was incorrect.

Live odds will respond to developments during the game as well, including scoring runs, foul trouble and changes in player availability. Such movements do not automatically represent betting opportunities, and responsible gambling guidance on setting limits remains relevant when markets change quickly.

One game will not provide a definitive measurement of Maccabi’s home-court advantage in Cyprus. It can, however, offer an early indication of how the team adapts to another environment and whether its performance differs from the expectations established before the move.

Home advantage remains a measurable and important feature of EuroLeague basketball. The historical evidence is clear, but its effect cannot be assigned equally to every club or every arena.

Maccabi’s changing circumstances demonstrate why the designation of a home team on the fixture list does not necessarily describe the conditions in which the game will be played.

For EuroLeague betting markets, the meaningful assessment depends on the venue, crowd, travel demands, team strength and the adjustments already reflected in the available prices.

Being listed as the home team is one thing. Enjoying a genuine home-court advantage is another.