By Eurohoops team / info@eurohoops.net
Neemias Queta and Luka Garza produced 14.3 of the Celtics‘ Win Shares in 2025-26, about a quarter of a 56-win season. Wembanyama produced 10.0 for a 62-win Spurs team, roughly 16%. The ranking below covers every European in the rotation of the five teams at 14/1 or shorter for the 2027 title, ordered by how much of their team’s 2025-26 wins their Win Shares account for. “European” here means born in Europe or capped by a European senior national team.
Win Shares are a blunt tool for this. They measure last season’s production rather than this season’s role, and they undersell defense that never shows up in a box score. Each entry adjusts for what has changed since.
1. Victor Wembanyama, Spurs (France): 16.1%
Wembanyama edges Queta for the top share by less than a tenth of a point and wins on everything else. He was Defensive Player of the Year, made the All-NBA First Team and finished third in MVP voting after averaging 25.0 points and 11.5 rebounds in 29.2 minutes. In the Finals, which San Antonio lost 4-1 to New York, he averaged 26.0 points, 11.2 rebounds and 3.6 blocks. The Spurs spent the summer adding a veteran around him, Tobias Harris, to a rotation that already had Harrison Barnes, rather than a second star, which keeps their title chances running straight through him.
2. Neemias Queta, Celtics (Portugal): 16.1%
The Lisbon-born center played 76 games, more than anyone else on this list, averaging 10.2 points and 8.4 rebounds in 25.3 minutes. His 9.0 Win Shares matched the share of Boston’s wins Wembanyama produced for San Antonio. The risk is his minutes. Boston traded Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia and added Paul George and Mitchell Robinson, a center who could take part of Queta’s role. If Queta keeps the starting job, a Portuguese center carries more of Boston’s title hopes than most fans would guess.
3. OG Anunoby, Knicks (born in the UK): 11.9%
Anunoby was born in London and has never played for Great Britain, so he qualifies by birth only. He averaged 21.2 points on 52.5% shooting in the Finals as New York won its first title since 1973, alongside Finals MVP Jalen Brunson, who averaged 32.6. His 6.3 Win Shares in 67 regular-season games came to 11.9% of the Knicks‘ 53 wins. For a defending champion whose path to a repeat runs through a reloaded Philadelphia in the East and two co-favorites in the West, New York can least afford to lose his two-way minutes.
4. Luka Garza, Celtics (Bosnia and Herzegovina): 9.5%
Born in Washington, D.C., Garza has played for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s senior team since 2023. He turned 16.2 minutes a night into 8.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 5.3 Win Shares, an unusually efficient return for a backup center. With Robinson arriving, he is the Celtic most likely to lose minutes despite how much Boston leaned on him last season.
5. Isaiah Hartenstein, Thunder (Germany): 8.3%
Oklahoma City shares the top spot with San Antonio at +260 in the 2027 championship market, and it carries more Europeans than any other contender: Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, Nikola Topić, No. 12 pick Aday Mara and Christoph Tilly. Hartenstein, who played for Germany at EuroBasket 2017, missed 35 games but still produced 5.3 Win Shares in the 47 he played, averaging 9.2 points and 9.4 rebounds.
6. Ajay Mitchell, Thunder (born in Belgium): 7.5%
Born in Namur, Mitchell averaged 13.6 points in 25.8 minutes across 57 games and produced 4.8 Win Shares. Together with Hartenstein, the Thunder‘s two European rotation players produced 10.1 Win Shares, 15.8% of a 64-win season, almost matching Wembanyama’s share on his own. If Topić and Mara find minutes, the Thunder could end the season as the most European of the five contenders.
The exception: Philadelphia
The 76ers moved into third on the board after adding LeBron James and Jaylen Brown, and they are the only one of the five without a European in their regular rotation. Ariel Hukporti, born in Germany, played 9.2 minutes a game for the Knicks last season and is now out for the season with a torn Achilles, and Rayan Rupert is on a two-way contract. Joel Embiid, often counted as French, chose Team USA for the 2024 Olympics.
Where it starts
Wembanyama is still the European most likely to decide the 2027 title. By this measure, Boston needs its European big men about as much as San Antonio needs its French one, and Oklahoma City has the deepest European bench of the five. Opening night on Oct. 20 puts two of these teams on the same floor, when Hartenstein and Mitchell’s Thunder visit Wembanyama’s Spurs in the last game of the night.
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