By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
Last week was excellent for Eurohoops’ betting column as there were 9 out of 9 tips in the first three days and 10 out of 12 in total.
Fenerbahce – Unics Kazan
Fenerbahce are undefeated, they have seven wins in a row in all competitions, and seem like they’re handling the period of Bogdan Bogdanovic’s absence pretty painlessly. The Serbian guard is absent, but Sloukas and Dixon have been vey good during this time. Unics Kazan on the other hand, have not managed to cover the absences of Clarke and Ponkrashov. The Russians still don’t have a win in the competition, even though they fought hard in the first three games. The difference in capability of the two teams is quite big and so no matter how in form Keith Langford is, Fenerbahce can win by a margin bigger than 10,5 points (@Βet365 1,76).
Maccabi Tel Aviv – Barcelona
The derby between two traditional forces of European basketball can become a springboard for the winners to launch a counteroffensive. Maccabi have two wins in a row over Galatasaray and Zalgiris, while Barcelona also have a 2-2 record (wins over Unics and Bamberg, defeats by Fenerbahce and Crvena Zvezda) while trying to recover from successive injuries. Ribas and Lawal will miss the entire season, Koponen has returned but is still not ready, and Navarro and Doellman are going to be uncertain until the last moment. Also, there is the first clasico for the championship coming up on Sunday. It’s better to avoid this game.
The undefeated at home and in form Olympiacos host the undefeated CSKA, who have the best offense in the EuroLeague and are winning games with great momentum. The Piraeus team is not expected to try and trap the Muscovites in a low tempo game, but will probably follow the tactic that brought them to the 3-1. Green’s participation will be decided at the last minute and his possible absence will definitely affect the ability of the red-and-whites to run on the open court, to have plurality in offense, and to increase their productivity. The limit of 168,5 points (@Stoiximan 1,75) is the highest that has been given for a home game for Olympiacos in recent years, but is entirely justified after the consecutive overs. If Green plays, the Over seems like an excellent choice.
Brose Bamberg – Olimpia Milano
Bamberg have a 1-3 record, but lost two games at the last shot and one in the details by 4 points. The Germans have presented an excellent team, but are not effective yet. Milan, on the other side, started out with 2-0 against Maccabi and Darussafaka, but last week lost to Olympiacos and Real. The Italians have very poor defense, the second worst after Galatasaray, conceding 92,2 points. Bamberg, accordingly, score 78 points per game on average. The limit for the home team’s points is set at 82 (@Sportingbet 1,83), so because of the rhythm, the Over is expected to be confirmed.
Real Madrid – Galatasaray
Real don’t have a perfect record thanks to Baskonia and Galatasaray still haven’t celebrated their first win in the EuroLeague. The Madrilenos score 90 points on average, having scored less only on the opening night against Olympiacos (83). On the other hand, the Turkish team has conceded 98 points in at least three of the four EuroLeague games. The limit of 95 points, then, for Real makes sense, but is too high for someone to bet on the Over in a EuroLeague game. On the other hand, Galatasaray’s 80,5-point limit seems low. The tempo is going to be very fast, there are going to be more possessions, and since the Turks score 86,5 points and the home team concede 82 points per game, the bet on Galatasaray’s Over seems quite possible. However, Daye’s participation in the game is questionable, Koksal is out and the Spaniards can win by margin beigger than 14,5 points (@Stoiximan 1,73).
Eurohoops’ tips
Fenerbahce-Unics Kazan (+10,5) 1
Olympiacos-CSKA Moscow Over 168,5
Brose Bamberg-Milan Brose Bamberg Over 82,5
Real Madrid-Galatasaray (+14,5) 1