By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
The schedule includes great home games for the two eternal rivals in the EuroLeague: Panathinaikos are called to overcome Maccabi’s obstacle at the Olympic Sports Center Athens without their captain and best player, Nick Calathes, while Olympiacos will host Dimitris Itoudis’s CSKA Moscow, who are powerful for yet another season and the leaders in the standings, at the Peace and Friendship Stadium.
Panathinaikos – Maccabi Tel Aviv
Calathes’s absence is very important for Panathinaikos and, at the same time, it creates an interesting problem in terms of betting as to the way it will affect the lines of the rest of the team’s players. In recent years – in his second term, when he became the team’s leader – we don’t really know how the Greens react to his absence, since he has never actually been absent! The away win for Maccabi with the handicap (+6,5 at 1,75) has some value since we don’t know to what extent the home team will be affected without their captain. The factor of the home court though makes us want to avoid a clean away win for the Israelis.
The Over 9,5 for Nikos Pappas (1,60) also has some value, as does the H2H between the same player and Roll (for Pappas to score 2+ points more than Roll). The Greek ace will play more, while many of the attempts that Calathes usually takes on (about 10-15 per game) will fall in his hands. The easy way or the hard way, Pappas can score 5 shots since he will play close to 20 minutes.
Real – Valencia
From this clash, we’re going with a player bet that is rather interesting: the Under 10,5 for Thompkins. Perhaps this is the highest line that has been given this season for the American forward, who has been playing more due to Randolph’s absence from Laso’s team. It’s worth taking a risk on the Under since Thompkins is not consistent offensively, and also because Valencia is now full in terms of their big men with the return of Dubljevic.
Zalgiris and Bamberg aim to make the surprise this season and get in the top eight and the EuroLeague’s playoffs. Both are coming off big wins over Fenerbahce and Olympiacos respectively, and they are in good form. The game is very likely to be decided in the details, so the handicap on Bamberg (+6,5 at 1,75) is enough to get us paid.
Olympiacos are dealing with several injury problems, while we don’t even know what shape the players who have come back will be in. CSKA look like they are in better shape at the moment, while in recent years they have also created a positive tradition at the Peace and Friendship Stadium during the regular season. However, the Under 79,5 for the Russians has a better chance because Olympiacos are excellent in defense whether they are playing at home or away. One more reason is the fact that the game is taking place at the Peace and Friendship Stadium.
Picks
Panathinaikos – Maccabi Tel Aviv (+6,5) 2 / @1,75
Pappas Over 9,5 / @1,60
H2H Pappas – Roll (+1,5) 2 / @1,60
Zalgiris – Bamberg (+6,5) 2 / @1,75
Thompkins Under 10,5 / @1,60
CSKA Moscow Under 79,5 / @1,75