By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
Eurohoops’ betting column is gearing up for this week’s double game day in the EuroLeague, hoping to have a success similar to last week’s.
The schedule includes several games that hang in the balance. First, let’s take a look at the analysis of Tuesday’s games.
Anadolu Efes – Unics Kazan
Efes are having many ups and downs in their performance, they haven’t found the right chemistry and roles yet, and are a team that take their games to the most possessions among all the others in the EuroLeague. Unics Kazan, on the other hand, have the second smallest number of possessions per game, but comparatively, they have the third worst defensive performance in points per possession. So, the expected development is for the game to go to a high score and over the limit of 162,5 points. The 5,5-point handicap in favor of the Turkish team prompts us to bet on the away win, but it’s better not to take the risk.
Bamberg have a 2-4 record, even though they could have been at 6-0 if they were more careful and effective in the last minutes of their games. After all, all their games have been decided by margins of up to 4 points. On the other side, Crvena Zvezda have a run of three defeats in a row, but fighting for every game. The handicap (+8) in favor of the visitors (@Bet365 1,76) is too much. Besides, Bamberg have never won by a bigger margin, and the Serbs have lost by a margin bigger than 7 points only once. So, we are going to bet on the away win.
Maccabi have had a disappointing start to the season with a 2-4 record and several bad appearances. Their defensive performances have been very poor and Fenerbahce can take advantage of the chance to cover ground after the heavy defeat in the Basque country. The win over Galatasaray boosted the morale of the Turkish champions and since the handicap is minimal (-1,5 @Stoiximan 1,80), we are going to bet on a win for Zeljko Obradovic’s players. Fenerbahce might not be very convincing with their performances, but they are an organized team and a unit that relies on individual talent can get the win.
Milan – Baskonia
Milan have a 3-3 record and have left good impressions. So have Baskonia, though they have an extra win and now have to manage Shengelia’s injury. The game is expected to be closed and even though Milan are the favorites according to the estimates of the betting companies, we’re better off dealing with points. Milan have the highest point average (even though they went to overtime on one occasion) in the EuroLeague with 93, and Baskonia have 82,5. Respectively, Milan have the second worst defense, conceding 94,5 points. So, when the limit is set at 175,5 points (@Sportingbet 1,73), then the Over is rather attractive.
The tips
Brose Bamberg-Crvena Zvezda (+8) 2
Maccabi Tel Aviv (+1,5)-Fenerbahce 2
Milan-Baskonia Over 175,5