By Lefteris Moutis / info@eurohoops.net
The prognostics for the winners are rather difficult and so we are going to focus on the points, relying on mathematics.
The first game of the week didn’t go so well with 3 out of 8 hits overall. However, the next one starts right away and we are going to proceed with the analysis of Thursday’s games, with the Turkish Clasico standing out.
Unics Kazan – Maccabi Tel Aviv
Unics Kazan were defeated by Efes after two wins in a row, but fought in this game as well and showed that they are going to fight most of their games, even though they have a 1-6 record. Maccabi Tel Aviv are also coming from a win over Fenerbahce in a game where they showed a completely different image with a much better defensive attitude. The game is expected to be close, so it’s better to turn to the points. Unics have the fourth best offensive rate per possession and the second worst defensively. Their total of points is not that high in every game, because the Russians set a very slow pace in their games. However, Maccabi follows a different tempo and the score is expected to go high and the overall aggregate of 160,5 points to be exceeded (@Stoiximan 1,70).
In the Turkish derby, Fenerbahce are looking for atonement after the three consecutive defeats (4-3 record), while Efes have many ups and downs and one less win. The home team is the big favorite for the win, but the 7,5-point handicap is rather big and better if you avoid it. On the contrary, in the last games, since Bogdanovic got injured, Fenerbahce’s point average has dropped significantly. Except for the game against Galatasaray, Obradovic’s team scores 67,3 points per game. So, it’s preferable that you bet on the Under 83,5 points (@Sportingbet 1,95) for Fenerbahce.
Crvena Zvezda – Armani Milano
Crvena Zvezda are hosting Milano coming off the win over Bamberg that put them in a good spot with a 3-4 record. The Italians have a win more and a good momentum going after the two consecutive successes. The game is expected to be close and any prediction is risky. The Over/Under looks particularly interesting. Milan is the best team offensively with 92,3 points per game together with CSKA, and Zvezda the worst with 70,6. Respectively, Milan has the second worst defense conceding 91,9 points, and Zvezda the second best after Barcelona with 72 points! The limit is at 156,5 points. Overall, 7 out of 7 of Milan’s games have a total of points that is higher than the limit, and for Zvezda that’s 2 out of 7. If the math is simply confirmed, then the Over (@Stoiximan 1,80) will be confirmed, so we are betting on it too.
Baskonia have a 4-3 record and they are always stronger at home. Bamberg on the other side, have only two defeats, losing all the games by less than 4 points and the frustration is definitely great! The Basques have an advantage for the win, but the handicap of 7,5 points (@Sportingbet 1,75) is big, since they’ve only defeated Fenerbahce by a bigger margin. Bamberg, then, can fight this game and defend the handicap that is in their favor.
The betting tips
Unics Kazan – Maccabi Tel Aviv Over 160,5 points
Fenerbahce – Efes Fenerbahce Under 83,5 points
Crvena Zvezda – Milan Over 156,5 points
Baskonia – Bamberg (+7,5) 2