By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
Once again last week ended with a plus sign for Eurohoops’ betting column, with 3 out of 4 successful points. The first games of this round are rather hard to predict, since many important players are in doubt…
Unics Kazan – Baskonia
Unics Kazan are in last place with just three wins and are looking for consistency in their performance and more protagonists beyond Langford. Baskonia are going to play again without Bargnani, Larkin is in doubt because of a virus infection and Prigioni still hasn’t arrived. A lot will depend on the shape Larkin is going to be in, because without him the Basques are going to be a different team. In that case, Unics will have an advantage for the win, but the Under at 160,5 points (@OPAP 1,75) seems even likelier, since both teams are playing with less possessions lately.
Darussafaka – Real Madrid
Darussafaka have four consecutive defeats and have now dropped out of the top eight. Real Madrid, on the other side, are in second place with 8-3 wins and have only lost to Baskonia at home, and away to Fenerbahce and CSKA. Llull is still in doubt and it’s certainly best not to bet on the winner of the game, which seems ambiguous. Real’s point limit, though, is 84,5 points (@Stoiximan 1,83) and we’re betting in favor of the “tradition” of the Over, since they’ve scored less only twice in a total of eleven games.
Zalgiris are on the rise and in the last five games they have lost only to CSKA and Real in the details. The Lithuanians are doing excellent teamwork and they’ve made things hard for almost all of their opponents this year. In theory, Olympiacos could have an advantage for the win, but Hackett is out, while Georgios Printezis’s participation is also going to be decided at the last moment and a lot will depend on this. The point limit for the red-and-whites is very high (79,5 points) based on the problems and the good defensive attitude of the Lithuanians, so we’re going with the Under (@Sportingbet 1,95).
Crvena Zvezda – Maccabi Tel Aviv
Crvena Zvezda are not in good shape, losing their last three games by a wide margin. At home, though, the Serbs always have an extra incentive. Maccabi are perhaps in even worse shape, with two defeats in a row at home, and also a defeat in the Israeli championship. In theory, because of their quality, the Israelis have a small advantage for the win, but it’s better to bet on the Over. At the beginning of the season, Crvena Zvezda had the best defense in the competition, but now they’ve dropped to fifth place. And now, four of the Serbs’ last five games have a total of more than 154,5 points (@Bet365 1,80). Something similar is happening with Maccabi as well, even though the Israelis have improved defensively.
The emphatic win over Maccabi Tel Aviv can uplift Bamberg mentally after the consecutive lost games in the final minutes. Efes, however, are in form counting three wins in a row, but they won’t have Bryce Cotton anymore as he was replaced by Brandon Paul. The game is hard to call in terms of the winner, but it’s worth betting on the Over, even though the limit is quite high (163,5 points). Both teams are among the best offensively per possession and among the worst defensively per possession. So, they can go over the limit (@Stoiximan 1,75).
The choices
Unics Kazan – Baskonia Under 160,5 points
Darussafaka – Real Madrid Real Madrid Over 84,5 points
Zalgiris – Olympiacos Olympiacos Under 79,5 points
Crvena Zvezda – Maccabi Tel Aviv Over 154,5 points
Bamberg – Anadolu Efes Over 163,5 points