By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
Olympiacos want to answer for the defeat by Milan and the game against Bamberg in the Peace & Friendship Stadium is an ideal opportunity. Eurohoops analyses the games of this round.
For the first time since the start of the season CSKA Moscow are not alone at the top of the standings. The four defeats in the last six games are certainly a pretty unusual circumstance for the European champions. Efes are not in much better form and things will certainly not be easy in Moscow. However, the handicap of 13,5 points is pretty big. In fact, since Milos Teodosic is going to be out for another game, it’s preferable to bet on the away win.
Darussafaka – Zalgiris
Darussafaka are struggling to stay in the top eight but lack the required consistency. Zalgiris are coming from the big win over CSKA, their biggest this season, but it’s difficult for such an inexperienced team to handle an away game. The Turkish team has an advantage for the win thanks to the roster, but the 7,5-point handicap is very big for a game against a very combative Zalgiris team. Away from home, the Lithuanians usually take the games to a high score (they score 81,7 and concede 84), while something similar happens with Darussafaka at home. So, we’re betting on the Over at 159,5 points.
Barcelona – Baskonia
Barcelona are with their back against the wall and they have to recover quickly in order to make the playoffs train. They have one win in the last four games and are two wins away from the top eight. Baskonia looked secure and ready for the top four, but after the three consecutive defeats they also took a tumble and they want to secure the qualification. The two games between them this year have been close, but were very different. The safer choice seems to be to rely on the Catalans’ defense and the Basques’ poor form in offense. The Blaugrana concede 73 points on average at home, but Baskonia’s limit is at 74,5 points, so it’s better to avoid this one.
The defeat by Milan was a resounding slap in the face for Olympiacos who will definitely look for an immediate reaction. Bamberg, on the other side, are coming from yet another defeat at the end by Real and it’s going to be hard for them to respond. The home team have a powerful advantage for the win, but the 8,5-point handicap is huge. Giannis Sfairopoulos is going to press his players to play good defense, the 74,5 points are enough for Olympiacos’s standards in the Peace & Friendship Stadium, so we’re going to bet on Bamberg’s Under.
Real – Milan
Real want the win in order to remain at the top alongside CSKA and Milan want to follow up on the win over Olympiacos. Can the Italian team make the surprise again? It’s extremely difficult. The Madrilenos are on to it and they will probably prevail easily. The handicap of 15,5 points, though, in this season’s EuroLeague, is huge. It’s certainly risky to bet on the away win, so let’s focus on points. Real have the second best offense (89,1 points at home) and Milan the worst defense (conceding 85,8 points away from home). So, the Over at 91,5 points then will be exceeded by the home team.
The picks
CSKA Moscow – Efes (+13,5) 2
Darussafaka – Zalgiris Over 159,5 points
Olympiacos – Bamberg Bamberg 74,5 points
Real – Milan Real Over 91,5 points