By Lefteris Moutis/ moutis@eurohoops.net
In the most crucial game for the placement in the top eight, Panathinaikos are going to rely on their defense and on three-pointers against Baskonia.
In the big Turkish derby, Efes want the win to secure mathematically as well the qualification for the playoffs, while Fenerbahce want to remain above Baskonia and Panathinaikos so they don’t lose the home court advantage. Efes are in form with six wins in seven games, while Obradovic’s team comes from the shocking defeat by Maccabi and has to bounce back without, however, Sloukas or Datome and with Bogdanovic in doubt. The Serbian guard’s participation is going to decide a lot in the game, even though it looks like Efes have the advantage for the win. What’s considered more likely, though, is the Under in Fenerbahce’s points, since without their driving forces in the backcourt, it’s going to be hard for them to score more than 76,5 points.
Maccabi have been ruled out for a while now, but that didn’t stop them from defeating Fenerbahce in Istanbul in one of the biggest surprises of the season. Zalgiris have been practically disqualified, but Sarunas Jasikevicius’s players certainly aren’t going to give up on the competition from here on out. The game is wide open in terms of predictions and it’s better if you focus on a game that is of interest in terms of the standings for the two teams.
Milan – Bamberg
Something similar is true of the game in Milan as well. None of the teams has an incentive, but Milan certainly don’t inspire confidence to impose themselves on a team that has principles and a certain philosophy. The Italians have six defeats in a row and the Germans one win in the last six games. So, if someone was to place a bet, the away win would seem more appealing since Bamberg have a handicap in their favor. However, it’s best to avoid this game too.
Baskonia – Panathinaikos
In the biggest derby for the top four, Baskonia and Panathinaikos want the win in order to gain an advantage ahead of the battle with Fenerbahce for the top four. The Basques are in excellent form with four wins in a row, while the Greens have a 3-10 record away from home without having defeated any teams of the top eight. Panathinaikos have a 6,5-point advantage in their favor and the away win is very likely as it even leaves room for a close defeat. After all, the Greens have lost by a wide margin only by Fenerbahce and Barcelona.
An interesting point is the choice of Panathinaikos scoring 10+ three-pointers (@1,80 @OPAP). The Greens make 9,9 three-pointers on average away from home, being the team with the biggest number of three-pointers, and Baskonia are the second worst team in conceded three-pointers at home (9,7 per game).
Lastly, Rodrigue Beaubois is consistently the second pole in Baskonia’s backcourt. The limit of 10,5 points, though, is rather high for the French guard since he’s reached a double-digit number of points only three times in his last eleven games in the EuroLeague. So, we’re betting on the Under.
The picks
Efes – Fenerbahce Fenerbahce Under 76,5 points
Baskonia – Panathinaikos (+6) 2
Panathinaikos 10+ three-pointers
Beaubois Under 10,5 points