By Aris Barkas-Utkan Sahin / info@eurohoops.net
You can call them predictions, you can also call them educated guess, but with 24 teams entering the tournament, you would agree that they are not all equals.
The expansion of the Eurobasket format proved that there’s still a gap between the already established teams around Europe and the up and comers. The good news is that in recent years many nations which were not traditional powerhouses have entered the race and even more are expected to do this in the near future.
However, many injuries and the needs of NBA players kept many of them out of the tournament can make things a little more unpredicted than usual and here’s how Eurohoops assess the landscape, as the tip off is upon us.
Photos courtesy of FIBA
24 – Romania – Group C
Preparation period performance: 1/10
Staff Potential: 1/10
Despite being one of the four co-hosts, Romania is not ready for the tournament. The fact that naturalized Giordan Watson will be missing is also one more blow. They even lost to Estonia and Portugal during their training camp and those teams didn’t even qualify for the tournament. It’s going to be a struggle for them.
23 – Ukraine – Group B
Preparation period performance: 1/10
Staff Potential: 3/10
Four years ago Ukraine with coach Fratello on the bench and Pooh Jeter on the court was one of the surprise teams of Eurobasket 2013. Since then, everything went wrong. They lost the right to host Eurobasket 2015, the best players of the country turned their back to the national team and they don’t have a real chance in Group B.
22 – Iceland – Group A
Preparatory semester performance: 3/10
Staff Potential: 2/10
Everyone likes an underdog and in their second straight Eurobasket, that’s the role of Iceland. Their success is playing in the tournament and getting a win will be a bonus. They will gain some attention due to the presence of NBA prospect Tryggvi Hlinason but that’s not enough for them in order to do something memorable.
21 – Great Britain – Group D
Preparatory stage performance: 4/10
Staff Potential: 2/10
They managed to beat Israel, Hungary, and Ukraine during their preparation games, but against the established opponents, couldn’t do much. While they are a solid team, they lack the talent and a leader in order to take the next step. Players like Gabe Olaseni and Dan Clark are established in Europe but as role players.
20. Czech Republic – Group C
Preparatory stage performance: 2/10
Staff Potential: 4/10
After an amazing Eurobasket 2015 tournament and their presence in the quarterfinals, the Czech Republic was expected to make a step forward. This can’t happen without Jan Vesely, Blake Schilb and Ondrej Balvin who decided not to play this year. All of them could have a key role in the team. Tomas Satoransky must fight alone. He will without any doubt, however, he also needs help.
19 – Hungary – Group C
Preparatory stage performance: 3/10
Staff Potential: 4/10
It’s their first time in the tournament since 1999. They returned in style, without losing not even one game in the qualification round with Adam Hanga and David Vojvoda leading the charge. With Hanga losing most of the training camp due to the negotiations about his transfer to Barcelona, Hungary couldn’t do much damage. This may change during the official tournament.
18 – Belgium – Group D
Preparatory stage performance: 3/10
Staff Potential: 5/10
Despite missing naturalized guard Matt Lojeski, Belgium has quite the experience and the continuity to make an impression. After all, they beat Spain, Germany, and Italy during the preparation games. It’s difficult to predict if they can make it to the final round without “Lojo” leading the way, but they can’t be underestimated.
17 – Finland – Group A
Preparatory stage performance: 2/10
Staff Potential: 6/10
In theory, Finland has all the tools to advance. There’s Petteri Koponen as always, a veteran group who knows each other, Chicago Bulls‘ rookie Lauri Markkanen and the home crowd to boost them. Still, with Koponen coming from injury, Finland lost all but one of their preparation games and they have to improve vastly in a very short time in order to make a splash. In any case, it will be a surprise not to see them in Istanbul for the final round.
16- Montenegro – Group C
Preparatory stage performance: 2/10
Staff Potential: 6/10
Having the quarter of Nikola Vucevic, Bojan Dubljevic, Marko Todorovic, and naturalized point guard Tyrese Rice can be the recipe for success. This didn’t happen, however, during the prep games. Montenegro beat only Belgium and Ukraine, they had trouble scoring the ball and didn’t produce the way they were expected to. In theory they are much, much better.
15 – Germany – Group B
Preparatory stage performance: 3/10
Staff Potential: 5/10
This new version of Germany with Dennis Schroder being the star, Boston’s Daniel Theis also present and youngster Isaiah Hartenstein on board, can do many things. The question is if they are ready. Without Paul Zipser and Tibor Pleiss, Germany is missing depth and quality and so far, it’s all about Schroder. If he can be not only a scorer but also a floor general, then they will change level.
14 – Poland – Group A
Preparatory stage performance: 6/10
Staff Potential: 5/10
This is their first tournament in the post-Marcin Gortat era, Maciej Lampe is also missing, but Poland has a solid team, which is well coached and has depth. Add to the Mateusz Ponitka and Adam Waczynski, rookie center Przemyslaw Karnowski and you have a solid unit. This was proven during the prep games and now their obvious goal is to keep Finland out of the top four of Group A.
13 – Israel – Group B
Preparatory stage performance: 7/10
Staff Potential: 4/10
Israel was impressive during the preparation games, with just two defeats in eleven contests. Omri Casspi is playing his best basketball ever with the national team, he has real support from his teammates and they seem bound for the final round.
12 – Russia – Group D
Preparatory stage performance: 5/10
Staff Potential: 6/10
After two bad tournaments in 2013 and 2015, Russia, even without Sergey Karasev, needs to bounce back. They have the roster to do so. Alexey Shved and Timofey Mozgov are the biggest names, Andrey Vorontsevich is at the peak of his career and the question is if they can avoid self-destruction and play solid defense. It’s a stereotype, still, this is the problem plaguing the team in recent years.
11- Turkey – Group D
Preparatory stage performance: 7/10
Staff Potential: 5/10
Every time the “Dev Adam” play at home, they end up winning big. They have to do it without injured Bobby Dixon, as the golden generation of Cedi Osman, Furkan Korkmaz and company must take things on their hand. If Ersan Ilyasova was in the team, things would have been even better. What’s not been talked much so far, however, if the effect that coach Ufuk Sarica, a former star player, can have in the team. Sarica is emerging as the best Turkish coach and building a “new” national team can one more achievement for him.
10 – Italy – Group B
Preparatory stage performance: 6/10
Staff Potential: 6/10
No Andrea Bargnani, no Alessandro Gentile, no Danilo Gallinari. The last tournament of Ettore Messina on the Italian bench had a very eventful training camp. Still, Italy has the roster, they also have one of the best coaches of the tournament and most importantly the will to prove that they belong to the elite.
9- Georgia – Group B
Preparatory stage performance: 8/10
Staff Potential: 6/10
This can be Georgia’s break out tournament. With Zaza Pachulia leading the show, Georgia has all the tools for the best ever Eurobasket tournament in its history.
After all they have beaten Serbia, Latvia, Lithuania and Greece, so it’s just a matter of repeating this kind of performance in the official tournament.
8- Greece – Group A
Preparatory stage performance: 6/10
Staff Potential: 7/10
No Giannis, no party? Yes, any team without Giannis Antetokounmpo would have issues. In this case, however, Greece has enough talent to remain among the elite of the tournament. The problem is that after changing everything without Giannis, Greece would have to find its identity during the tournament. On paper, the dreams of a medal are not realistic, still Greece should be prepared for the best and also for the worst.
7- Latvia – Group D
Preparatory stage performance: 7/10
Staff Potential: 7/10
Like Georgia, Latvia is also ready for a big tournament. Kristaps Porzingis will make his debut in the senior level with the national team, the roster is deep and Latvia during the last few years has registered steady progress. Remember, is not only about Porzingis. Latvia has pretty much everything with the exception of experience in the crucial knock out games.
6- Slovenia – Group A
Preparatory stage performance: 7/10
Staff Potential: 7/10
This is going to be the last tournament of Goran Dragic and his goal is a medal. The fact that the team will be boosted by boy-wonder Luka Doncic and naturalized Anthony Randolph make them a real threat for anyone. This was proven in the preparation games with Doncic riding the wave of his great club season with Real Madrid. Can this be the tournament in which finally Slovenia gets a top three finish? There’s a real chance for this to finally happen.
5- Lithuania – Group B
Preparatory stage performance: 7/10
Staff Potential: 7/10
In tournaments where there are no clear favorites for the medals, Lithuania always finds the way to be near the top. That’s the case once more. The trio of Jonas Valanciunas, Mindaugas Kuzminskas and Mantas Kalnietis is the base of the team, Jonas Maciulis always plays his best for the national team and Lietuva doesn’t back down against anyone. We expect to see them fight for a medal.
4- France – Group A
Preparatory stage performance: 8/10
Staff Potential: 7/10
Despite missing many stars, the post-Parker French national team remains among the best of the tournament. Yes, things would have been quite different with Gobert and Batum in the mix, but they still have a lot of talent and players who can make things happen. It will be more than strange not to see them getting a medal in the end and that has a lot to do with the next team in our rankings.
3- Croatia – Group C
Preparation period performance: 9/10
Potential of cadence: 7/10
Has Croatia finally arrived? The first indication for that was last year’s pre-Olympic tournament. This time Bojan Bogdanovic, Dario Saric and Dragan Bender can take a lot of people by surprise and that’s what they want. They played only five games during their training camp, they were great on the court and they will be unleashed in the tournament, hoping that they can finally regain their past glory.
2- Serbia – Group D
Preparation period performance: 9/10
Potential: 8/10
Serbia at full strengh could challenge Spain for the top. Even without players like Milos Teodosic and Nikola Jokic, which are the biggest names missing, the team of coach Djordjevic has matured and still can be the only “real” opponent of Spain. Bogdan Bogdanovic and Boban Marjanovic must have a great tournament for this to happen and they are ready to deliver.