By Eurohoops Team / info@eurohoops.net
Neither side has any real pedigree at the top level of European basketball, with the Israeli outfit featuring in the EuroLeague for the first time ever this term and their Spanish counterparts reaching the tournament’s quarterfinals just once throughout their modest history.
Upstarts Steal the Show
Hapoel +115 point differential backs up their audacity. Coach Dimitris Itoudis has drilled a defensive clampdown that has held foes to a stingy 82.15 points per game, all while Antonio Blakeney and Vasilije Micic pour in the points. Their recent 85-60 thrashing of Dubai was a masterclass—a savage 49-19 second-half run that left no doubt—and with a 7-2 road record, they’re proving that this team can even deliver in hostile enemy territory.
Valencia, however, has matched them stride for stride thus far, also sitting 13-6, with a ferocious 9-1 home mark that has turned the Roig Arena into a fortress. Jean Montero’s playmaking sorcery pairs perfectly with Bojan Dubljevic’s paint dominance, piling up 1804 points through sheer relentless pace. An early-season win against reigning champions Fenerbahce set the tone, but further stunning upsets have followed, prompting the bookies to slash odds on the Taronja shocking the continent this term.
After being way out at 66/1 in preseason, Valencia now find themselves installed as a 14/1 contender, but the use of a popular betting tool shows just how little of a percentage chance the bookies genuinely think they have of reigning supreme. One can calculate implied probability at Thunderpick, and the popular website shows that the current second-place team has just a 6.67% chance of winning the tournament this term. Compare that to the favorites, whose 7/2 odds indicate a 22.22% chance, and it’s clear to see that Valencia are still some way behind the heavy hitters.
But so far this term, the heavy hitters have faltered somewhat. The only heavyweight that currently finds itself in the top five of the standings right now is reigning champions Fenerbahce, with the rest jostling for wins and for position. So, where do the usual big dogs currently find themselves? Let’s take a look.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid are the 11-time EuroLeague overlords and a team that has reached the Championship game in three of the last four seasons, winning one of them. However, despite the accolades and the endless Liga ACB bling, Los Blancos find themselves stumbling around in sixth place at 12-7. While that is hardly any reason to panic, the Spanish capital giants are in the midst of their ugliest start in two decades. They owned the 2023/24 regular season after picking up just seven defeats all year, but last term, their crown slipped with 18 total defeats, the highest number in their history.
The summer shopping binge on Trey Lyles, Chuma Okeke, and Theo Maledon has left the record champions staring down a €38 million financial black hole, but it doesn’t look as though the expenditure will catapult Real back to the top of the standings just yet. Edy Tavares is still a rebounding monster, and Facundo Campazzo weaves assists like a magician, but that 6-4 road record is a glaring sore spot. Take the 100-95 gut-punch in Monaco: they blew a 14-point lead, and even Campazzo’s fourth-quarter heroics couldn’t salvage it.
Sergio Scariolo’s post-Dubai rant—“no freakin’ excuses”—after a 63-point second-half explosion rang true, but let’s call it: turnovers against aggressive presses, sluggish adaptation to all the new faces, and bone-tired legs from cup runs are killing them. Another season on the periphery could well be on the cards should performances not improve quickly.
Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos are titans in their own right, claiming the title eight times throughout their history. However, they too are languishing somewhat this term, sitting in seventh place in the standings. Ergin Ataman’s high-octane attack, fueled by Kendrick Nunn’s MVP fireworks and Kostas Sloukas’ maestro touches, delivered back-to-back Greek crowns and a heartbreaking semis exit to Fenerbahce last season, and the bookies clearly are looking at that as opposed to the form displayed this season.
The Athens club is currently the 7/2 favorites to win the EuroLeague this term, but good lord, hasn’t there been some drama. Injuries have sidelined Richaun Holmes, Mathias Lessort, and Nikos Rogkavopoulos at one point or another, while owner Dimitris Giannakopoulos is losing the plot. He blasted the squad after the 82-87 Olympiacos derby flop and another 82-87 Milan stinger, demanding passion amid nine straight Athens Derby disasters. If that wasn’t bad enough, ref wars earned him a five-game ban plus a €10K fine.
Home games outpace road splits, sure, but that Round 15 Milan stunner job ripped open defensive wounds, dragging their L10 into mediocrity. Can they get healthy and rally, or is play-in purgatory calling?
Olympiacos
Olympiacos Piraeus owns three EuroLeague gems claimed under Georgios Bartzokas, in addition to a further 15 Greek thrones. They’re anchored in eighth place right now, sitting at 11-9. Bartzokas—the 2023 Coach of the Year with four Final Fours, 2023 Greek hardware, and a third-place 27-7 in 2024—gets big minutes from Nikola Milutinov’s double-doubles and Donta Hall’s 4.6 RPG, form that has seen Athens’ other heavy hitter installed as a 7/2 joint favorite alongside their eternal rival.
But slow starts and board battles have been lost to the likes of Valencia types, though those Panathinaikos derby daggers have at least lifted the vibes. Balanced home/away and a 5-5 L10 show steadiness, but without explosive backcourt zip, the top six feels out of reach, no matter what the bookies think.