By Aris Barkas/ barkas@eurohoops.net
You have seen the stars, the rookies, the absences, the rosters of Group A and B, and those of Group C and D, the format, and the schedule, plus we have a guide for those who are not really familiar with the Eurobasket but want to get into it (yes, casual NBA fan, we mean you).
So what’s left? A preview for each group and of course, the predictions for those making it to the Round of 16 and more.
With the top four teams of each group qualifying for Berlin, the first phase it’s not only about the teams making it to the knockout games, but will also decide who will face who until the title game.
So what happens in the first game may come to haunt you later down the road.
Spain, Bulgaria, Turkey, Montenegro, Belgium, Georgia
Things here seem to be quite clear. Spain, despite having only Rudy Fernandez available from the old guard that dominated FIBA basketball for almost 20 years, together with the young and ambitious version of Turkey are ahead of the competition and the rest of the four teams will fight for one ticket.
Here’s where things are going to get tricky. If Georgia had Toko Shengelia, playing at their home might have been enough for them to make it to the next round without a lot of pressure. Now Belgium, Bulgaria, and Montenegro have at least a fighting chance. Traditionally the home factor plays a huge role in Eurobasket results, Georgia has a lot of issues to solve on their backcourt but they can still make it. On the other hand, first and foremost Bulgaria has the chance to shine.
Why Bulgaria? The duo of naturalized point guard Dee Bost and All-EuroLeague forward Sasha Vezenkov might be enough to make things happen compared to the solid rosters of Montenegro and Belgium. After all, Bulgaria without Vezenkov pushed Latvia – without Porzingis of course – out of the Eurobasket with a road win.
Prediction: Spain (1), Turkey (2), Georgia (3), Bulgaria (4)
Germany, France, Slovenia, Lithuania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary
In every FIBA competition, there’s usually a debate about which is the stronger group in the first phase. This time, it was really easy for everyone to agree. This is the “Group of Death” and nobody gives a fighting chance to Hungary. In theory, Bosnia is also an outsider, BUT they just beat France in the recent FIBA windows. And guess what! Germany did the same against Slovenia.
So, yes Doncic is human after all and this makes this prediction even harder. Lithuania is also a medal contender, and Germany is the main Eurobasket host, while France is last year’s Olympic silver medalist. It will be a blood bath with Bosnia of Jusuf Nurkic and Dzanan Musa probably being the odd team out.
The prediction about the final standings of the four top teams is anyone’s guess, plus the second and the third spot probably translate to a meeting with Greece or Serbia before the semifinals. However, we have to deliver what we promised in the title of this post.
Prediction: France (1), Slovenia (2), Lithuania (3), Germany (4)
Italy, Greece, Croatia, Estonia, Ukraine, Great Britain
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece are hugely considered to be the top team of this group and host Italy without injured Danilo Gallinari lost a player who would have been a huge asset. Croatia on paper could be considered a powerhouse, but on the court, the results are usually underwhelming in recent years.
Still, they have more than enough talent, including one of the most respected NBA European veterans in Bojan Bogdanovic and Clippers‘ Ivica Zubac among others. So, they should qualify with ease, maybe even challenge Italy for the second position.
For the last open spot, Ukraine is simply the better team out of the three left, having more quality than Estonia and Great Britain – thanks to Alex Len and Svi Mykhailiuk – plus they have a huge motivation because of the ongoing war on their country to make a statement with their on-court presence.
Prediction: Greece (1), Italy (2), Croatia (3), Ukraine (4)
Serbia, Czech Republic, Finland, Poland, Israel, Netherlands
Here things are simple. Serbia will have a walk in the park and the Netherlands will need a small miracle to get things done. So what’s left? Four teams fighting for three spots.
Even in the case, they end up missing Tomas Satoransky, the Czech Republic remains a solid team around Jan Vesely and will have the boost of the home crowd. Finland and Lauri Markkanen are more than hot so far this summer. And Poland, despite their own share of internal turmoil, is still an experienced unit with quality players led by Mateusz Ponitka.
On the other hand, the young version of Israel built around Deni Avdija and Yam Madar lost to Finland and Sweden in the recent FIBA World Cup qualifiers. They have talent, but they seem not ready yet for this level of competition.
Prediction: Serbia (1), Finland (2), Czech Republic (3), Poland (4)