By Eurohoops team / info@eurohoops.net
The 2024/25 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague Regular Season has entered the final stretch. Teams returned to action after a break, and Round 27 is already in the books.
That means there are only seven rounds left to determine who’s going to the Playoffs and Play-In. There’s no more room for error.
Except maybe for Olympiacos, who seems safe at the top of the standings with a 20-7 record and on its way to securing a playoff spot quickly, along with home-court advantage. According to Figurei8th, the Piraeus team is 100% certain to make it to the Top 4 in all scenarios.
The projection determined by the Basketball Advanced Stats and Charts account puts the Greek team at the top, with Panathinaikos (86.2%) and Fenerbahce (72.4%) the only other teams with more than a 70% chance for a home-court advantage spot.
The prediction model, with 10,000 simulations based on Elo rankings for the past two seasons, Net Advanced Rating (Offensive – Defensive) this season, split by home/away games, and Strength of Schedule embedded in it, puts Monaco alongside the mentioned teams with the highest chances (44.9%) to play first playoff games at home.
It also predicts a close battle for Top 6 and direct Playoff spots between Paris, Partizan, Bayern Munich, and Crvena Zvezda, giving the highest chances to the French team (47.4%) and the lowest to the German side (41.5%).
As for who could take the last two Play-In spots, the race gets even tighter between Olimpia Milano, Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Anadolu Efes. According to Figurei8th, Milano (74.1%) and Barca (72.7%) have a higher probability than Real Madrid (63.8%) to make it to the Top 10, while Anadolu Efes‘ chances stand significantly below the three aforementioned teams (39.2%).
As for the other teams, Zalgiris Kaunas has a slim 4.3% chance to enter the postseason via Play-Ins, while Baskonia and ASVEL may need a miracle to enter the Top 10, with below 1% probability. Virtus Bologna, Maccabi Tel Aviv, and ALBA Berlin are out of contention.
📈Projection to EL Playoffs/Play-in as of R27/34 @EuroLeague
Top 4
🔹Olympiacos 🇬🇷: Top 4 in all 10k simulations
🔹Panathinaikos 🇬🇷 and Fenerbahçe 🇹🇷: >70% chance for Top 4
🔹Monaco 🇲🇨: Marginally higher chances than teams belowTop 6
🔹Close battle for Top 6 and… pic.twitter.com/tW58adMECC— Figurei8ht (@Figurei8ht) March 1, 2025
With seven rounds to go, the situation in the EuroLeague standings is mostly tense, with only Olympiacos safe at the top, boasting a 20-7 record. Fenerbahce is at 17-9 and still has to play a delayed Round 17 match against Paris, while Panathinaikos is third with a 17-10 record.
Lacking behind the teams below in matches played, Paris is fourth with a 16-10 record, while Monaco, Crvena Zvezda, and Bayern Munich follow with a 16-11 record. Partizan and Olimpia Milano have 15-12 records, while Real Madrid and Barcelona are at 14-13. Anadolu Efes and Zalgiris Kaunas have reached 13 victories so far, losing 14 matches until Round 28.