By Eurohoops team/ info@eurohoops.net
The FIBA World Cup semi-finals are finally set, and Wednesday’s final quarter-final offered a surprise that will certainly shake up the outlook from this point forward. Until Wednesday, most fans had assumed that the entire World Cup tournament was little more than a formality staged ahead of an inevitable USA-Spain gold medal game. France had other plans, however, and following its stunning defeat of the Spaniards (in Madrid, no less), the semi-finals look different than anyone expected. Here’s our look at the match-ups.
USA v. Lithuania
To the casual fan, a USA v. Lithuania pairing might sound very lop-sided. Indeed. Despite the fact that the USA is playing what many call its “B-Team” this summer, the roster is still a who’s-who of current and future NBA All Stars. Lithuania, meanwhile, boasts players largely unknown to the international community; Donatas Montiejunas and Jonas Valanciunas are the only NBA representatives and Martynas Pocius may be recognizable to some due to his stint playing college ball at Duke University. Those who have paid attention to FIBA and Olympic basketball in the past decade, however, know that USA would be foolish to take Lithuania lightly.
Before the tournament’s knockout round began, the title winner odds at Betfair (which of course labeled Spain and USA as the favourites) had Lithuania listed at 25.0 odds to win the tournament, but the site cited the team’s signature strong shooting and efficiency as reasons it could make things difficult for the top contenders. In spite of Lithuania’s relative lack of NBA talent, it has become a very tough team in international tournaments in recent years. In the 2012 Olympics, the team (with a roster very similar to this year’s, minus Linas Kleiza) lost by only five points to the USA en route to a quarter-final berth. Two years prior, the team won its group in the FIBA world championships and made the semi-final before losing to USA by 15. And back in the 2004 Olympics, Lithuania even pulled a now infamous upset of the Yanks.
Lithuania is somewhat weaker this time around, minus Kleiza. However, even with its remaining advantages in raw talent, team USA is depleted as well. The truth is that this game will feature a young American team going up against a veteran Lithuania squad that has experience competing hard when expected to lose. Lithuania enters the game shooting extremely well (46.6% FG and 52.6% from three against Turkey), while the USA blew out Slovenia in the second half after a slow start to the quarter-finals.
Expect the Americans to push the pace in this semi-final match-up. Lithuania can struggle with ball handling, and a fast pace will allow the USA to exploit this weakness and stop the Lithuanians from getting into a shooting rhythm. USA should also be able to use a fast pace to take advantage of its particularly mobile big men. This could be tighter than most expect for two or three quarters, but expect USA to win comfortably in the end.
France v. Serbia
And then there’s the match-up no one saw coming. Just a week ago, Brazil beat Serbia in the group stage in fairly routine fashion. The twin towers of Anderson Varejao and Tiago Splitter coupled with the strong play of forward Marquinhos Vieira was too much for the Serbians inside. At the time, Brazil looked to be asserting itself as perhaps the third best team at the World Cup (after USA and Spain). On Wednesday, however, Serbia turned the tables, using steady bench production (particularly from future Phoenix Suns player Bogdan Bogdanovic) and taking advantage of a poor Brazilian shooting night to advance with an easy 28-point win.
Meanwhile France, as noted previously, stunned the basketball world. After being soundly beaten by Spain in the group stage, the French team took down the host nation by 13 points behind strong games from Boris Diaw (of the San Antonio Spurs) and Thomas Heurtel. With the game contested closely throughout, Spain took a one-point lead at the end of the third quarter and looked to be gaining momentum. But France hung around and closed the game on a shocking 10-0 scoring run, with Spain failing to score in the final two minutes.
Frankly, it’s anyone’s guess at this point who has the edge between these unlikely semi-finalists. Their contest in the group stage may well have been the game of the tournament (before France v. Spain), with France prevailing 74-73. Continued strong play from its stars and emerging big man Rudy Gobert will probably mean another victory for France. But it seems that when this Serbia team gets hot, it’s very tough to beat. This is just about a toss-up.
The Predictions
Team USA and France will advance, with USA winning the gold medal. Lithuania will beat Serbia in the bronze medal game.