Who will advance? The EuroCup quarterfinals qualification scenarios

2020-03-02T16:54:20+00:00 2020-03-02T19:52:54+00:00.

Stefan Djordjevic

02/Mar/20 16:54

Eurohoops.net

Last round of the EuroCup Top 16 stage is around the corner and the spotlight will be on the eight squads racing for a spot in the quarterfinals

By Stefan Djordjevic/ info@eurohoops.net

With one round remaining in the 7DAYS EuroCup Top 16, half of the quarterfinals field has already been decided but four more tickets are up for grabs and eight teams have a chance to secure them, however slight it may be in some cases.

Keep in mind that Group H has already been decided with Unicaja Malaga securing the first and Tofas Bursa the second place.

The rest of the groups still have an active race and that is most true for Group F in which all four squads have a realistic chance to advance.

EuroCup Top 16 scenarios

Group E

Darussafaka – Virtus: March 4, 18:15 CET (SUSPENDED)
Partizan – Trento: March 4, 21:oo CET

Group E W L PTS+ PTS- +/-
1. Partizan NIS Belgrade (qualified) 4 1 398 343 55
2. Segafredo Virtus Bologna 3 2 413 392 21
3. Darussafaka Tekfen Istanbul 3 2 362 358 4
4. Dolomiti Energia Trento 0 5 338 418 -80

Partizan secured the first spot with a come-from-behind win against Bologna in the previous round while the Italians will now have to race with Darussafaka for the second spot.

Both squads hold a 3-2 record and the winner of their duel will take it all.

Group F

Oldenburg – Promitheas: March 3, 20:00 CET
Brescia – Venice: March 4, 20:30 CET (NO SPECTATORS)

Group F W L PTS+ PTS- +/-
1. Promitheas Patras 3 2 343 311 32
2. Umana Reyer Venice 3 2 359 374 -15
3. EWE Baskets Oldenburg 2 3 402 404 -2
4. Germani Brescia Leonessa 2 3 333 348 -15

First and foremost, let’s get the four-way tie out of the way. Oldenburg and Brescia have to win their games in order to have a chance and in case they both get wins, everybody in the group will have a 3-3 record.

If that happens, the higher cumulative score difference in head-to-head games between all tied teams will decide the final rankings. In this case, since all the teams of a group are involved, the number in question is their overall score difference in the Top 16 phase (see the +/- numbers in the standings above).

It’s impossible to give all specific scenarios and numbers on how the four-way tie will turn out as it depends on the scores of both games. However, Promitheas is in a highly favorable position with a +/- of 32 while Venice, on the other hand, would get eliminated.

The most likely scenario would be that Promitheas keeps the first spot while Oldenburg takes the second as Brescia trails behind the Germans by 13 in total +/- currently. Oldenburg is also convincingly the highest-scoring team in the group and any tie in +/- would give them the advantage. A 17-point win would give Oldenburg the first spot, in all likelihood.

The ‘bothersome’ four-way tie aside, there are also other scenarios in this group for each team:

Promitheas advances with a win OR if they lose by 11 or less and Venice wins.

Venice advances with a win OR if they lose by 7 or less and Promitheas wins.

Oldenburg advances with a 12-point win and Venice’s win over Brescia.

Brescia advances with an 8-point win and Promitheas’ win over Oldenburg

Group G

Rytas – Galatasaray: March 3, 18:00 CET
Monaco – UNICS: March 4, 19:30 CET

Group G W L PTS+ PTS- +/-
1. AS Monaco 3 2 409 383 26
2. UNICS Kazan (qualified) 3 2 421 398 23
3. Rytas Vilnius 2 3 385 407 -22
4. Galatasaray Doga Sigorta Istanbul 2 3 396 423 -27

UNICS secured a ticket to the quarterfinals in Round 5 after beating Ryas which at the same time lost all chances to advance. However, it doesn’t mean that their performances in the last round don’t matter at all.

Monaco will advance and secure the first spot with a win OR with a loss and Rytas’ win.

Realistically, they will advance even in the case of Galatasaray beating Rytas, however, there is a mathematical chance for the Turks to get the better of them.

Both squads would be at a 3-3 record and neither will have an advantage in direct clashes as both duels ended with a 12-point margin. Luckily for Monaco, they are on the front side of a big gap between the teams in the total cumulative score difference (+/-).

Galatasaray would have to overcome a 53-point difference between the two. And to cover all the bases, in case of the scenario where both squads end up having the same +/-, the higher total of points scored for the entire Top 16 will decide who qualifies.

Group H

Tofas – Andorra: March 4, 18:00 CET
Joventut – Unicaja: March 4, 20:45 CET

Group H W L PTS+ PTS- +/-
1. Unicaja Malaga (qualified) 4 1 424 399 25
2. Tofas Bursa (qualified) 3 2 396 385 11
3. Joventut Badalona 2 3 427 442 -15
4. MoraBanc Andorra 1 4 403 424 -21

In this group, everything is already decided with Unicaja and Tofas having already qualified.

7DAYS EuroCup Tie Breakers

1. Best record in head-to-head games between all tied teams.
2. Higher cumulative score difference in head-to-head games between all tied teams.
3. Higher cumulative score difference for the entire Top 16.
4. Higher total of points scored for the entire Top 16.
5. Higher sum of quotients of points in favor and points against of each match played in the Top 16.

* Points scored in overtime(s) will not be counted in the standings for any tie break situation.
* If a tie-breaker does not resolve a tie completely, a new tie break process is initiated with only those teams that remain tied.