By Eurohoops team/ info@eurohoops.net
With one round left and three teams – Fenerbahce, Baskonia, Zalgiris – fighting for the last two open playoff spots, there are a lot of things still undecided, mainly the final standings and the playoffs couples.
So here’s how things can and probably will end up next week.
After the defeats of Barcelona and Monaco, Olympiacos (23-10) can’t drop further than second if they are defeated by Cazoo Baskonia (18-15) at home and also Real Madrid (23-10) beats Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv (19-14) on the road.
Real Madrid is the only other team that can end up in the top spot and can also drop to the third spot if Barcelona (22-11) beats already disqualified Valencia at home and the “Whites” are defeated in Tel Aviv. In that case, Barcelona will end up second.
Monaco (21-12) on the other hand travels to Istanbul to face Anadolu Efes but no matter the result, they will end up fourth, since Barcelona has the tie-breaker against them.
Things are more tricky after that. Fenerbahce BEKO, Partizan Mozzart Bet, and Maccabi have all a 19-14 record and in the three-way tie their final standings will be the following:
1. Fenerbahce 3-3 (+13)
2. Partizan 3-3 (-3)
3. Maccabi 3-3 (-10)
So if they all get wins, then Fenerbahce will be fifth, Partizan will be sixth and Maccabi will end up seventh. The really crucial game here is the road test of Fenerbahce against Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet in Belgrade.
If Fenerbahce loses, then despite a 19-15 record, they might end up missing the playoffs if Baskonia (18-15) gets the road win against Olympiacos and Zalgiris (18-15) beats Bayern in Munich.
Fenerbahce doesn’t have any tiebreaker advantage against Baskonia and Zalgiris, on the contrary with Partizan and Maccabi, which have already secured qualification and can’t drop to the eighth spot.
Of course, if Zalgiris gets the win against Bayern and Baskonia loses to Olympiacos, then Baskonia is out of the playoffs. If both teams win, or both are defeated, then Baskonia gets qualified, having the tiebreaker against the Lithuanians.
The final standings of Maccabi also depend mainly on their possible win against Real Madrid and on Fenerbahce’s result.
As for Partizan, the only scenario that pushes them to the fifth spot is for them to beat Panathinaikos at home and for both Maccabi and Fenerbahce to be defeated. On all other tiebreakers, either on a three-way tie, or a two-way tie, they are ending up in the sixth spot.
Starting from the assumption that most home sides will prevail and also that Zalgiris and Fenerbahce will get the road wins against already eliminated opponents, the most probable playoffs scenario seems to be the following:
Olympiacos (1) vs Zalgiris Kaunas (8)
Barcelona (2) vs Maccabi (7)
Real Madrid (3) vs Partizan (6)
Monaco (4) vs Fenerbahce (5)